[Kabar-indonesia] Fears of Annual Indonesia Bombing Worries Experts [+Thai Attacks; Philippines]

[JoyoNews at aol.com]

4 reports: 

- Fears of Annual Indonesia Bombing Worries Experts

- Factbox - Pattern of recent bomb attacks in Indonesia

- Three dead in Thailand after wave of attacks

- Philippine military launches new offensive against 
  Abu Sayyaf, Jemaah Islamiyah

Fears of Annual Indonesia Bombing Worries Experts

By Jonathan Lyons, Asia Security Correspondents

JAKARTA, August 2 (Reuters) - Security experts, a wary eye on the
calendar, are bracing for a possible attack by Indonesian militants
which would fit a pattern of yearly high-profile bombings dating from
the 2002 Bali blasts that killed 202 people.

Three other big attacks have taken place since then, one each year and
all between August and mid-October.

"There is no reason to think they will all of a sudden stop," said Ken
Conboy, a security consultant in Jakarta who closely monitors
Indonesia's militants.

U.S.-based analyst Zachary Abuza agrees. "We know there is tremendous
pressure on them to pull off an attack by this fall," Abuza said in a
telephone interview from Bangkok.

Proponents of this view say such regular cycles are dictated, in part,
by the need for the bombers to go to ground for six to eight months
after an attack, emerging just long enough to plan and execute their
next operation.

But others question whether the Jemaah Islamiah network, blamed for
the four earlier bombings in Bali and the Indonesian capital Jakarta,
or any of its successor factions, now have the capability or the will
to carry out a vigorous new strike.

Arrests, deaths, and what appears to be a "re-think" among some
militants about the efficacy of violence in support of their stated
goal of an Islamic superstate in southeast Asia, have all taken their
toll.

So, too, has an apparent split within Jemaah Islamiah, into a
political wing under the fiery preacher Abu Bakar Bashir and a
pro-bombing wing led by Noordin Top, who remains at large.

Arabinda Acharya, of Singapore's International Centre for Political
Violence and Terrorism Research, said Bashir, released in June after
serving time in jail for a role in the 2002 Bali bombing, was taking
more of a political tack these days.

He said in an e-mail exchange that the emergence of what some are now
calling JI Mainstream, under Bashir, may pose a greater danger than
any would-be bombers on the loose.

"Although JI mainstream places a high emphasis on proselytising, they
also provide military training to their members."

Most senior figures were veterans of the same U.S.-backed campaign
against the Soviets in Afghanistan that gave birth to Osama bin
Laden's al Qaeda movement.

"Over time, their consolidated strength will be greater than the
decentralised and ad hoc (pro-bombing) factions."

Meanwhile, the experts agree, there is no shortage of recruits
prepared to carry out attacks, including suicide missions. Sporadic
religious clashes in Indonesia and an active radical movement provide
breeding grounds for new militants.

"Unfortunately, the suicide volunteers is the easiest part," said Conboy.

More daunting is the expertise to construct complex bombs. The death
of Azahari bin Husin in a shootout with Indonesian police in 2005
deprived JI of a master bomb-maker, one of the few figures with the
skill to wire and detonate powerful car bombs.

Other police operations in Indonesia and nearby Malaysia have further
reduced JI's striking power, said Abuza. But this has only spawned a
new generation of unidentified militants.

"The good news is they are less capable as a result. The bad news is
no one has ever heard of them," making detection by the authorities
that much more difficult.

Widodo Adi Sucipto, Indonesia's chief security minister, said on
Tuesday more incidents could be expected despite police successes.

"There have been significant results but we still have to prepare
because... terrorism exists and Indonesia has become the target and
the victim," he told reporters.

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Factbox - Pattern of recent bomb attacks in Indonesia

August 2 (Reuters) - Security experts are nervous that a four-year
pattern of annual bombings, between August and October, may continue
against Indonesian tourist sites or Western targets, such as embassies
or international hotels.

Following is a chronology of major blasts by Muslim militants which
analysts say fit this pattern. All have been blamed on the militant
Jemaah Islamiah network:

Oct. 2, 2005 - Suicide bombers set off three blasts on the resort
island of Bali which killed 23 people, including the three bombers and
some foreign tourists. More than 100 people were wounded.

Sept. 9, 2004 - A powerful bomb explodes near the Australian embassy
in central Jakarta killing 10 Indonesians and wounding more than 100.

Aug. 5, 2003 - A bomb outside the JW Marriott Hotel in Jakarta kills
12 people, including a Dutchman, and wounds 150.

Oct. 12, 2002 - Blasts on the tourist island of Bali kill 202 people,
many of them foreign tourists, including 88 Australians.

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Agence France-Presse
August 2, 2006

Three dead in Thailand after wave of attacks

Three Thai policemen have been killed in a blast just hours after a wave of 
nearly 100 coordinated bomb and arson attacks in Thailand's Muslim-majority 
south, officials said.

Another officer was injured when the bomb exploded at a railway bridge in the 
southern province of Songkhla, around 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) south of 
Bangkok. Police blamed the blast on suspected Islamic militants.

Songkhla is located next to Thailand's three insurgency-torn provinces where 
around 1,400 people have died over the past two years in separatist attacks 
and other unrest.

The railway attack came just hours after a string of 97 coordinated bomb and 
arson attacks across the region along the southern border with Malaysia late 
Tuesday that injured at least three people.

Tuesday's wave of incidents, the largest in more than a month in the restive 
south, targeted the homes of police and government officials, karaoke bars and 
a train station, officials said.

"The latest attacks showed militants remained capable of launching 
coordinated attacks against the government," said Sunai Phasuk, a Thai consultant at 
Human Rights Watch.

"They also undermined the government's claim that they were making progress. 
In fact, the situation was getting worse," Sunai said.

The three provinces along the Malaysian border were an ethnic Malay sultanate 
until Buddhist Thailand annexed them a century ago, and separatist unrest has 
simmered ever since.

The latest violence erupted in January 2004. Officials say the bloodshed 
includes not only separatist violence but also fighting tied to organized crime, 
smuggling and local corruption.

The government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has tried to quell the 
insurgency but analysts have said that heavy-handed tactics have instead brought 
the opposite results.

Last month the government again extended emergency rule in the troubled three 
provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala for three more months. Thaksin 
imposed emergency rule in the south in July 2005.

"To fight the insurgency, the government needs good intelligence from local 
people. But Thaksin's measures such as emergency rule are only alienating local 
people," Sunai said.

Under emergency rule, authorities can detain suspects for up to 30 days 
without charge, search and arrest people without warrants, and tap phones.

It also gives security forces broad immunity from prosecution, which human 
rights groups claim creates a climate of impunity.

In June, the panel tasked with finding ways of ending the violence in the 
south recommended that the government create a permanent body to mediate in the 
Muslim-majority region.

The independent National Reconciliation Commission, a blue-ribbon panel 
appointed by the government in March 2005, also said local government officials 
should use the Malay language spoken by most of the residents in the region.

But the government has backed away from those and other proposals.

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Philippine military launches new offensive 
against Abu Sayyaf, Jemaah Islamiyah

MANILA, August 2 (AP) -- The Philippine military has launched a fresh
offensive against Muslim extremist groups in the country's volalite
south.

The military's Southern Command said the operation is directed at the
"top-of-the-list terrorist groups" the Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah
and their leaders on Jolo island, in southern Sulu province, a known
bastion of extremist guerrillas.

"We have been planning and working for months to find and track the
terrorist leadership in Sulu and the time is now," a military
statement quoted Southcom chief Maj. Gen. Gabriel Habacon as saying.

Elusive Abu Sayyaf leader Khaddafy Janjalani and a number of militants
belonging to Jemaah Islamiyah, an Indonesian-based group also linked
to Osama bin Laden's terrorist network, have been sighted on Jolo in
recent months, military officials have said.

"Those (terrorist) individuals will either give up, be captured or be
killed through our action," Habacon said. "This will not be a quick
battle, but it will be one where we will be decisive and victorious."

A military task force on Jolo includes a marine brigade, an army
brigade, plus naval and air assets. The statement did not say the
estimated number of guerrillas they will be pursuing in the jungles of
Jolo, about 940 kilometers (580 miles) south of Manila.

The focus of the operations is the vicinity of Indanan town where
leaders of the groups were reportedly converging, the statement said.
Indanan was the scene of sporadic gunbattles and shellings late last
year, forcing thousands of villagers to evacuate.

The Abu Sayyaf group is notorious for ransom kidnappings, beheadings
and bombings, including a February 2004 attack that gutted a ferry
ship and killed 116 people in one of Southeast Asia's worst terrorist
attacks.

Janjalani and several other Abu Sayyaf leaders are on the U.S. wanted
list of terrorists for kidnapping and killing in 2001 at two
Americans, including Christian missionary Martin Burnham, who was
taken from a Philippine resort along with his wife. She was wounded
during a military rescue.

U.S. troops maintain a presence on Jolo island as part of
counterterrorism training, focusing on humanitarian missions including
building schools, fixing roads and improving the water supply.

Janjalani's presence there has raised concerns that Abu Sayyaf may be
plotting attacks against Philippine and U.S. troops.

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Joyo Indonesia News Service
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