[Kabar-indonesia] Outlook: Indonesia Oct CPI up 0.45-1.3% vs Sept; up 5.85-7.9% yr/yr

[Joyo at aol.com]

also: Outlook - Indonesia Sept trade surplus 2.95-3.58 bln
usd vs 3.27 bln in Aug

Outlook - Indonesia October CPI up 0.45-1.3 pct vs Sept; up
5.85-7.9 pct yr/yr

JAKARTA, October 31 (XFN-ASIA) - The consumer price index
(CPI) in October likely rose 0.45-1.3 pct from September and
was up 5.85-7.9 pct year-on-year, 12 economists polled by
XFN Asia, said.

The Central Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release the
CPI data tomorrow.

In September, the CPI rose 0.38 pct from August and was up
14.55 pct year-on-year.

Ten of the 12 economists said the month-on-month CPI rise in
October may hit its highest rate since February, coming in
at between 0.6 pct and 1.3 pct, with the main pressure
coming from gains in food and transportation prices during
the Idul Fitri festival.

They, noted however, that the year-on-year consumer price
rise is likely to fall to the single digit range of 5.85-7.9
pct, since the high base effect from the fuel price hike in
October last year, has now dissipated.

Government data shows that the CPI rose to 135.15 points in
October last year from 124.33 in September after the
government raised fuel prices by an average of 126 pct.

Citigroup economist Anton Gunawan, who gave one of the
highest estimates, predicted October CPI to have risen 1.2
pct month-on-month and 6.6 pct year-on-year.

He said the seasonal push from food inflation was mainly due
to a sharp increase in the prices of spices, and meats,
including chicken, during the Idul Fitri festival. An
increase in transportation prices as people went home for
the festival will have also had an impact.

Mandiri Securities economist Destry Damayanti also predicted
a month-on-month CPI rise of 1.2 pct driven by food and
transportation prices.

She said year-on-year inflation will likely fall to 6.65 pct
as the statistical base affect from the domestic fuel price
increases last year fades away.

Ho Woei Chen, an economist with the United Overseas Bank
Group, noted that with the base effect easing, the year-on-
year CPI rise in October may drop sharply to 6.1 pct from
14.55 pct in September.

Below is the list of analysts CPI forecasts for October:

1. CIMB-GK : up 0.45 pct mth-on-mth; 5.85 pct yr-on-yr

2. ING : up 0.6 mth-on-mth; up 6.0 pct yr-on-yr

3. DBS : up 0.6 pct mth-on-mth; up 6.0 pct yr-on-yr

4. UOB : up 0.7 pct mth-on-mth; up 6.1 pct yr-on-yr

5. Danareksa : up 0.74 pct mth-on-mth; up 6.16 pct yr-on-yr

6. Action Economics : up 0.8 pct month-on-month; up 6.2 pct
yr-on-yr

7. IDEAglobal : up 0.89 pct mth-on-mth; up 6.32 pct yr-on-yr

8. Bank Lippo : up 0.96 pct mth-on-mth; up 6.39 pct yr-on-yr

9. Citigroup : up 1.2 pct mth-on-mth; up 6.6 pct yr-on-yr

10. Mandiri Securities : up 1.2 pct; up 6.65 pct yr-on-yr

11. StanChart : up 1.3 pct mth-on-mth; up 6.75 pct yr-on-yr

12. ANZ : n/a; up 7.9 pct yr-on-yr

---------------------------------------------

Outlook - Indonesia Sept trade surplus 2.95-3.58 bln usd vs
3.27 bln in Aug

JAKARTA, October 31 (XFN-ASIA) - The country's trade surplus
in September came in within a range of 2.95-3.58 bln usd, 10
economists polled by XFN Asia said.

The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) is scheduled to
announce the trade data tomorrow.

The surplus in August reached 3.27 bln and was at 2.60 bln
usd in September last year.

The 10 analysts predicted exports in September to have grown
by between 13.3 pct and 20.56 pct year-on-year, while
imports rose 5.9-18.21 pct.

The country's exports hit a new all-time high of 8.89 bln
usd in August. Over the same period, imports reached 5.62
bln. In September last year, exports totaled 7.52 bln usd
while imports reached 4.92 bln.

Citigroup economist Anton Gunawan gave the lowest trade
surplus forecast of 2.95 bln usd, assuming that exports and
imports grew 13.3 pct and 13.1 pct year-on-year,
respectively.

"The softening of primary commodity prices may have started
to have an effect on the value of exports, while imports are
relatively stable, thus, reducing the trade surplus to
slightly below 3.0 bln usd," he said.

He noted that prices of key export commodities weakened in
September with the price of rubber down 10.7 month-on-month,
and vegetable oil down 2.0 pct.

Meanwhile, imports of fuel rose as state oil company PT
Pertamina continued to increase its stock of domestic fuel
in September ahead of holidays in October, Gunawan said.

Bank Lippo economist Winang Budoyo was among the most
optimistic, predicting exports to hit another record of 9.07
bln usd in September, for a 20.56 pct year-on-year increase.
With imports seen up 18.21 pct, the trade surplus will
likely come in at 3.25 bln usd in September.

David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting firm,
Action Economics, sees a trade surplus of 3.2 bln usd, with
exports and imports growth seen at 19 pct and 17.5 pct,
respectively.

He exports to reach a new record high, with rising volumes
offsetting a fall in commodity prices.

Below is the list of analysts forecasts:

               Trade surplus / exports / imports

1. Citigroup : 2.95 bln usd; up 13.3 pct yr-on-yr; up 13.1
pct yr-on-yr

2. CIMB-GK : 3.2 bln usd; up 14 pct yr-on-yr; up 9 pct yr-
on-yr

3. ING:  3.2 bln usd; up 19.5 pct yr-on-yr; up 17 pct yr-on-
yr

4. Action Economics: 3.2 bln usd; up 19 pct yr-on-yr; up
17.5pct yr-on-yr

5. IDEAglobal.com : 3.21 bln usd; up 18.5 pct yr-on-yr; up
15.9pct yr-on-yr

6. Bank Lippo: 3.25 bln usd; up 20.56 pct yr-on-yr; up 18.21
pct yr-on-yr

7. DBS : 3.29 bln usd; up 16.3 pct yr-on-yr; up 10.3 pct yr-
on-yr

8. StanChart : 3.3 bln usd; up 19.3 pct yr-on-yr; up 12. 3
pct yr-on-yr

9. Danareksa : 3.35 bln usd; up 20.55 pct yr-on-yr; up 16.23
pct yr-on-yr

10. Mandiri Securities : 3.58 bln usd; up 16.9 pct yr-on-yr;
up 5.9 pct yr-on-yr

------------------------------------------
Joyo Indonesia News Service
------------------------------------------