[Kabar-indonesia] North Korea to hold off nuclear test until year's end [+Abe in China]

[Joyo at aol.com]

also: Japan's Abe in China for ice-breaking summit

Agence France-Presse
October 8, 2006

North Korea to hold off nuclear test until year's end

North Korea is likely to delay a nuclear bomb test until at least year's end 
to see if the United States will lift sanctions and begin talks, Britain's 
Sunday Telegraph reported citing Russian officials in Pyongyang.

The paper cited unidentified Russian military officials as saying they had 
received information Pyongyang intended to give Washington up to three months to 
lift financial sanctions imposed last year and start direct talks.

"If Americans don't start (a) bilateral dialogue with Pyongyang and lift 
sanctions, then Kim Jong-Il is expected to give the order to carry on with the 
test, most likely in the second half of December or early January," one said.

North Korea announced Tuesday that it planned to test a bomb but did not give 
a date, triggering speculation that it could be as early as this weekend.

The shock announcement led to a UN Security Council statement Friday urging 
Pyongyang, which last year proclaimed itself a nuclear power, to renounce its 
intention and return to six-nation talks it has boycotted since last November.

Russian analysts told the Sunday Telegraph that, having built up tensions, 
the regime was likely now to fall silent.

"It needs to carefully monitor the situation, watch the reaction of the rest 
of the world and weigh all the pros and cons again," one analyst was quoted as 
saying.

"I would say that carrying out a nuclear test any time soon is not to North 
Korea's advantage."

In the same report, the paper also said the weapon North Korea intended to 
detonate had a 20-kiloton yield, similar to the atom bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 
Japan at the end of World War II in 1945.

The military experts cited by the weekly British newspaper said the bomb was 
about 10 feet (three metres) long and weighed around four tons, but was too 
big to fit onto any missile the regime currently possesses.

Pyongyang has boycotted six-party talks -- grouping North and South Korea, 
Japan, Russia, China and the United States -- since November in protest at US 
sanctions on a Macau bank accused of laundering funds for the regime.

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Japan's Abe in China for ice-breaking summit

By Teruaki Ueno

BEIJING, Oct. 8 (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in 
Beijing on Sunday for a summit with Chinese leaders at which he will seek a thaw 
in ties chilled by wartime history and will consult on North Korea's nuclear 
threat.

Abe, on his first overseas trip since taking office on September 26, was to 
meet Chinese President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao and parliament chief Wu 
Bangguo. He flies on to Seoul on Monday for talks with South Korean President 
Roh Moo-hyun.

"Prime Minister Abe is expected to stress the importance of building not only 
friendly ties, but also strategic, reciprocal relations between the two 
countries," a Japanese official traveling with Abe told reporters.

Beijing and Seoul refused summits with Abe's predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, 
because of his pilgrimages to Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, seen by critics as 
glorifying Japan's past militarism.

But Abe's visit, less than two weeks into his tenure as prime minister, is 
seen as a chance for a fresh start.

"The change of government gives an opportunity for both sides to build a new 
relationship regardless of what has happened up to now," an aide to Abe told 
reporters in Beijing.

Abe, at 52 the first Japanese premier born after World War Two, is a 
conservative who wants to restore Japan's sense of national pride, and has defended 
Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni.

Abe has also paid his respects there in the past, and has declined to say 
whether he would do so again while in office.

But mending ties is seen as key to addressing North Korea's threat to conduct 
a nuclear test, an issue certain to be high on the agenda at the two summits. 
The first official said Abe would call for closer cooperation with China in 
dealing with the North.

SANCTIONS?

Abe, Hu and Roh are expected to urge North Korea not to go ahead with a 
nuclear test, but behind the scenes they could well differ over how to persuade 
Pyongyang to hold back.

Japan and the United States prefer a hard line that would include tightening 
sanctions in the event of a test, while South Korea and China lean toward 
negotiation and incentives.

U.S. officials have said Pyongyang could detonate a device as early as this 
weekend.

Abe has laid the groundwork for the summits by softening his public 
statements on history, although experts warn the diplomacy could backfire in Beijing 
and Seoul if he later visits Yasukuni.

No one expects the meetings to erase bitter memories of Japan's wartime 
aggression and colonization, end mutual mistrust, or settle disputes over territory 
and energy rights.

But Abe is hoping his summitry will win plaudits from mainstream voters at 
home, and ease concerns in Washington and elsewhere about regional tensions.

Japanese business executives worried about economic fall-out from chilly 
diplomatic ties have pressed Abe to improve relations with its neighbors. And with 
their vital trade and investment links, China and South Korea are also keen 
for better relations with Tokyo.

In a sign of Beijing's eagerness for rapprochement, its leaders will be 
meeting Abe despite Sunday's opening of a key gathering of senior Communist Party 
officials.

(Additional reporting by Linda Sieg in Tokyo and Lindsay Beck in Beijing)

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Joyo Indonesia News Service
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